PRASHANT KHADKA

KATHMANDU: This year, the government celebrated the 21st National Paddy Day with the slogan 'Climate-Friendly Agriculture, Increase in Paddy Production.' However, it seems the government has not made sufficient preparations to develop a climate-friendly agricultural system and minimize the impacts of climate fluctuations on crops.

The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology estimated that Nepal will receive 35 to 55 percent more rain than average this year due to the 'La Nina' system developing in the Pacific Ocean, which is associated with above-average rainfall. The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum, a government mechanism of South Asian countries, announced that not only Nepal but all of South Asia will receive more than average rainfall this year.

Government officials expect rice production to increase due to the additional rains. However, due to the lack of irrigation facilities, many paddy farmers still rely on annual rainfall for paddy plantation. Experts also warn that floods and landslides could damage rice crops if there is excessive rain.

Hydrologist Madhukar Upadhyay notes that the current monsoon system is likely to bring more rain to some areas and none to others. He opines that since there will be excessive rainfall for a short period in places where rains, the possibility of crop destruction will increase. He said, “Currently, it is flooding in the Koshi region, but there is not much rain in the Bagmati and Terai regions. This kind of rain helps in planting rice but destroys it later rather than increasing production.”

The government has emphasized the production and import of seeds that are resilient to excessive rain. However, there is a lack of focus on controlling soil erosion, floods, and landslides caused by climate change. Upadhyay questioned, “What good is focusing only on seeds if our plantation is washed away by floods and landslides?”

The government has repeatedly failed to manage disasters caused by climate change, resulting in significant losses for farmers. In October 2021, unseasonal rainfall destroyed paddy fields, causing farmers across the country to bear losses of more than Rs 7 billion. Similarly, in 2020, locusts entered Nepal from India due to southerly winds, causing extensive crop damage, a phenomenon experts attribute to climate change.

Agricultural expert Chabi Poudel also noted the potential increase in rice production due to higher rainfall this year. However, he cautioned that if it rains excessively during rice planting, it could cause significant losses. Poudel criticized the government for only emphasizing fertilizers, irrigation management, and advanced seed production to increase rice production. Experts have been identifying excessive rain, unseasonal rain, and severe drought as effects of climate change.

According to the Country Climate and Development Report issued by the World Bank in 2022, Nepal's arable land is at risk of severe drought due to climate change. This will decrease production, increase food costs, and affect rural livelihoods. The report predicts that Nepal's GDP will decrease by 0.8 percent by 2030 due to the impact of climate change on crop production.

Rice is Nepal's most important crop, contributing 5 percent to the country's GDP. The agricultural sector's contribution to the total GDP is 15 percent. If rice cultivation is affected by climate change, the contribution of the entire agricultural sector to the GDP may decrease. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development, paddy cultivation is done on 1.3 million to 1.4 million hectares of land in Nepal. The ministry reports that over the last 42 years, per capita rice consumption in Nepal has nearly doubled from 74 kg to 138 kg per year.

With the onset of the monsoon, paddy planting began across the country. As of June 26, data from the Centre for Crop Development and Agro Biodiversity Conservation shows that 9.8 percent of rice planting has been completed, compared to 8.75 percent by June 24 last year. The most paddy has been planted in Bagmati, Karnali, and Sudurpaschim provinces. In Sudurpaschim, 25 percent of paddy planting has been completed while the figure is 23.9 percent in Karnali, and 18.3 percent in Bagmati.

Paddy cultivation is done on 175,176 hectares in Sudurpaschim, with 43,634 hectares planted so far. In Karnali, paddy is cultivated on 41,904 hectares of land, with 10,000 hectares planted so far. In Bagmati, out of 112,273 hectares, 20,550 hectares have been planted this year.

It is estimated that rice cultivation will be done on a total of 1,398,836 hectares in Nepal this year. So far, planting has been completed on 136,411 hectares. Deputy Director General of the Department of Agriculture Arun Kafle noted that the dry spell in Lumbini, Gandaki, and Madhesh provinces delayed planting. Despite the early onset of the monsoon in Koshi province, planting has been delayed there.

Last year, rice was cultivated on 1,438,989 hectares of land. Kafle stated that the area of paddy plantation might decrease this year due to current rain conditions and other factors. However, he added, “Since paddy planting will be done by July 14, the planting area might be somewhat different compared to the current estimates.”