Nepalis across the country celebrated the 22nd National Paddy Day on Sunday, June 29, with joyous rice transplantation rituals, mud-slinging festivities, and the sharing of traditional meals like dahi chiura (curd and beaten rice) with bananas and mangoes. The day, observed annually on Asar 15 in the Nepali calendar, signals the full onset of the monsoon rice-planting season.
Since its official inception in 2005, Paddy Day has evolved into a cultural and agricultural highlight. Government ministers, politicians, celebrities, and citizens alike take part in community transplanting events. This year was no exception. But beneath the surface-level festivity lies a sobering reality: Nepal's rice sector is facing mounting challenges from climate disruptions, import dependency, and fertiliser shortages.
Rising Imports Despite Record Harvest Projections
In a concerning reversal of recent trends, rice and paddy imports have nearly doubled year-on-year during the first 11 months of the current fiscal year. While Nepal imported Rs 22 billion worth of rice in FY 2023/24, that figure had already reached Rs 38.94 billion by mid-June this fiscal, according to government statistics. Paddy imports alone surged to Rs 21.15 billion, up from Rs 12.43 billion a year earlier. Imports of fine rice rose to 57,360 tonnes worth Rs 17.78 billion—more than double the previous year’s 26,910 tonnes.
Officials and analysts link the surge to India’s rice trade policy. While rice prices remained stable in 2022 despite global grain shocks, fears of El Niño-induced droughts and flooding in major producing nations led India, the world’s top rice exporter, to impose export restrictions in late 2022, according to the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
India implemented a number of trade restrictions in September 2022 to keep domestic supplies high and prices down. “These included additional export duties on unhusked rice (both white and brown), additional duties on non-basmati white rice (excluding parboiled rice), and a ban on broken rice exports (Table 1),” said the IFPRI’s report. “Twelve months later, with rising food inflation and the Modi government facing general elections in spring 2024, further restrictions were placed on rice exports including an export ban on non-basmati white rice (excluding parboiled rice), a 20% duty on parboiled rice, and a minimum export price (MEP) for basmati rice.”
While the impact of the 2023/24 El Niño event was less than feared, India eased rice exports in late 2024 after having an assurance of a bumper harvest.
In September 2024, it lifted the ban on non-basmati (excluding parboiled) rice, replacing it with an MEP of $490 per metric ton (MT).
Added the IFPRI report: “Export duties on parboiled rice were reduced from 20% to 10%. In October, the MEPs for both basmati and non-basmati rice were eliminated, along with export duties for parboiled rice and unhusked brown and white rice. Only the ban on broken rice remains (for which India has made allowances for neighboring countries and many developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa).”
Nepal’s production falls short of 1 million tonnes to fulfil the domestic demand, according to government officials.
“Nepali farmers harvest nearly 6 million tonnes of paddy annually, while domestic demand stands around 7 million tonnes,” said Keshav Devkota, Chief of the Centre for Crop Development and Agro-Biodiversity Conservation. “That gap is why we must rely on imports.”
A Promising Crop Season—With Caveats
Earlier this year, the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development projected a record-breaking paddy harvest of 5.95 million tonnes for FY 2024/25—up 4.04% from last year. This boost came despite a 1.28% reduction in the area under cultivation, from 1.44 million to 1.42 million hectares. The ministry attributed the rise to favourable early monsoon rains, improved seed varieties, and timely availability of chemical fertilisers.
But, this season, only 16% of transplantation has been completed by Paddy Day, slightly below last year’s rate. Although monsoon clouds entered Nepal early on May 29, they took more than three weeks to blanket the entire country. “The pace will likely pick up soon,” said Devkota. “But we’re still vulnerable—too much rain, too little rain, or poorly timed rain all impact farmers, especially where irrigation is lacking.”
Fertiliser Shortages Remain a Chronic Bottleneck
Fertiliser shortages remain a persistent concern.
The Economic Survey 2024/25 said the target is to procure 550,000 tonnes of chemical fertilisers in the current fiscal year, ending July 16. By mid-March, 262,930 tonnes were sold and distributed, with an additional 81,500 metric tonnes in stock, it said.
In the last fiscal year, the target was to procure 600,000 tonnes of chemical fertiliser. But, only 458,318 tonnes were imported.
The government has allocated Rs 57.48 billion for the agriculture sector in the upcoming fiscal year 2025/26, marking a slight increase from the Rs 57.29 billion earmarked in the current fiscal year. Of the total, Rs 28.82 billion has been set aside to supply chemical fertilizers and Rs 400 million for organic fertilizers. The government plans to ensure the availability of 600,000 tonnes of chemical fertilizers next fiscal.
But, Nepal’s inability to produce fertilisers domestically continues to create annual shortages. “The import process is lengthy, and our sourcing options are limited,” Devkota added.
Spring Paddy and the Self-Sufficiency Push
One underutilised solution, Devkota said, is spring paddy— Chaite Dhan . Though it receives higher solar radiation and faces fewer pests, it is cultivated on just 109,000 hectares of the 1.42 million hectares available for rice. “There’s scope to expand cultivation,” he said, “but we need irrigation, storage, and input systems in place.”
The government hopes to achieve rice self-sufficiency within two years, largely through expanded spring paddy cultivation. But many experts remain sceptical. “Without better infrastructure, irrigation, and market systems, it’s more of an aspiration than a plan,” said one observer.
