For years, scientists have warned that a massive earthquake is bound to hit the Himalayan region, the Times of India (ToI) reported. This so-called "Great Himalayan Earthquake" is expected to measure magnitude 8 or more and could cause catastrophic destruction across northern India, according to the Indian media outlet. What makes this especially frightening is that researchers say it’s not a question of if, but when, added ToI.

“India slides 2 metres beneath the southern edge of Tibet every century,” ToI quoted Roger Bilham, a leading American geophysicist, as saying. “Unfortunately, its northern edge does not slide smoothly but is hung-up (by friction) for hundreds of years and catches up in minutes when this friction is overcome. The slip events, which we call earthquakes, are the inevitable and unavoidable consequence of this motion.”

Historically, earthquakes of this scale have occurred every few hundred years, added ToI. But it has now been over 70 years since a major earthquake released the massive tectonic pressure building along the Himalayan arc. Bilham says, “They must occur. It is not a matter of ‘possibly’.” This looming danger threatens millions living near or above the active fault lines running through India.

Is the Myanmar Earthquake a Warning Sign?

On March 28, 2025, a devastating 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck Myanmar, killing at least 2,719 people and injuring over 4,500. Seventeen more people died in neighboring Thailand. The quake was triggered by a strike-slip fault along the Sagaing Line and released energy equivalent to around 300 atomic bombs. It caused widespread destruction — bridges collapsed, buildings crumbled, and families were buried in debris.

This disaster should serve as a wake-up call for India, where nearly 59% of land lies in seismic zones vulnerable to moderate to severe earthquakes, ToI further reported. States like Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, and the entire Northeast fall into high-risk categories. Major cities such as Delhi, Kolkata, and Mumbai also sit on or near fault lines. Delhi, for instance, lies in Seismic Zone IV along the Delhi-Haridwar Ridge, and was recently jolted by a magnitude 4.0 tremor with its epicenter in Dhaula Kuan, added the news outlet.

A Bigger Quake Than Nepal 2015?

According to the Times of India, about three-quarters of the 2,000-kilometre-long Himalayan arc is capable of generating a magnitude 8.2 earthquake — an event that would release three times more energy than the 2015 Nepal earthquake (magnitude 7.8). In some segments, the magnitude could reach 8.7 — releasing eight times more energy.

There’s even a low-probability but possible scenario of a magnitude 9.0 quake, similar to one that may have occurred in medieval India about 800–900 years ago, added ToI. Even if the shaking is no more intense than that of Nepal in 2015, the duration could be longer — potentially up to five minutes — which would severely test the structural integrity of buildings in the region.

What Needs to Change?

Countries like Japan and Chile, which also face major seismic threats, have taken concrete steps to adapt — enacting strict building codes, conducting regular drills, and training communities in disaster preparedness, ToI further reported. While not immune to quakes, they are much better prepared.

India, on the other hand, suffers not from a lack of knowledge, but from poor implementation, according to the ToI news report. Although the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) has laid down earthquake-resilient construction codes, these are often flouted. Builders who ignore these codes must be held legally accountable to ensure public safety, the news report further suggested.

According to ToI, regular structural audits are also essential, however, a serious shortage of trained professionals remains a major bottleneck. To bridge this gap, universities, technical institutes, and NGOs must step in by offering certification programs and mentorships to develop a new generation of seismic safety professionals.

Bilham warns, “A future great Himalayan earthquake (with magnitude between 8.2 and 8.9) will… be unprecedented because the Himalayas are the only place in the world where such a large earthquake can occur on land, exposing about 300 million people to prolonged violent shaking.”

Prepare Before It’s Too Late

According to the news report, proactive steps needs to be taken now — retrofitting unsafe buildings, training safety auditors, enforcing building codes, and preparing cities with evacuation zones. School drills and public awareness campaigns should make earthquake safety a part of everyday life.

“The next big quake is inevitable. But mass death and destruction are not. We still have time to prepare, but only if we choose to act.”