The effect of the global temperature rise has now escalated up to the extent of impacting trans-boundary water sharing agreements, compelling nations to modify with a due consideration of climate change impact factor. With high Himalayan regions warming at a rate of 0.5 degree Celsius in a decade, glaciers and snow camps, which are the primary sources of water for rivers like the Indus, Ganges and Bhramaputra, are fast disappearing.

With the advancement of science and technology, the idea of alleviating poverty by harnessing Himalayan water has become a central focus of South Asian regional cooperation. Several water-sharing treaties have been established between riparian countries, aiming to jointly utilise water resources for the social, cultural, and economic benefit of the people in the region. Notable examples include the agreements on the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers between India and Bangladesh, and the treaties on the transboundary Koshi, Gandaki, and Mahakali rivers between Nepal and India, which facilitate water usage for agriculture, power generation, domestic needs and industrial purposes within the Ganges basin. Among the various treaties in the Himalayan region, the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) between India and Pakistan stands out as a historic agreement. The treaty covers six rivers - Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Sutlej and Beas - that were managed as a single entity under British India. The treaty is unique because, despite the prolonged post-independence tensions, India and Pakistan could not reach an agreement until the World Bank stepped in to mediate the dispute. The treaty, signed by Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistan President Ayub Khan in Karachi on September 19, 1960, successfully managed water-sharing for over six decades. However, the agreement has recently come under strain, raising concerns about its future viability.

Disputes have emerged over several hydropower projects in Indian territory, as reported by India Today on August 19, 2024. These include the Kishanganga Project, Ratle Project, and Salal Dam Reservoir, built on rivers flowing from Srinagar, India, into Pakistan. Pakistan has persistently raised these issues on the international stage, seeking the intervention of neutral experts and rulings from the Court of Arbitration to secure what it views as its rightful share of water as a downstream riparian nation. India, meanwhile, continues to enjoy unimpeded access to upstream water flow and has not only refused to participate in the arbitration process initiated by Pakistan but has also skipped scheduled meetings. Additionally, India has expressed dissatisfaction with the judgments of the neutral experts appointed by the World Bank, questioning their impartiality in handling Pakistan's grievances.

Tensions over water rights in the Indus Valley have intensified, especially after India's abrogation of Article 370 of its constitution, which removed the special status of Jammu and Kashmir. This region houses the headwaters and major snowmelt catchment areas of the disputed rivers.

The disputes over water sharing in the Indus River system began soon after India and Pakistan became independent nations in 1947. The two countries found themselves locked in a stalemate, unable to reach a mutual resolution over their water rights. After more than a decade of negotiations mediated by the World Bank, the Indus Waters Treaty was signed in September 1960. Under this agreement, the western rivers - Indus, Jhelum and Chenab - were allocated to Pakistan, while the eastern rivers - Beas, Sutlej and Rav - were given to India, with some provisions allowing India limited use of the western rivers.

The treaty also established a graded mechanism to manage any arising disputes. Questions about the treaty's implementation would be addressed by the Permanent Indus Commission, which includes representatives from both countries. Differences that couldn't be resolved by the commission would be referred to a neutral expert, while full disputes would be handled by the Court of Arbitration in The Hague.

India has aimed to harness 15,000 MW of hydropower from the Indus basin and has already built reservoirs and power plants that generate 3,400 MW. Pakistan, as the downstream riparian country, has relied on the river for power generation and extensive irrigation projects for its vast agricultural lands. However, reduced water availability in Pakistan, both in terms of timing and volume, has affected power plants and irrigation systems.

The 3,180 km-long Indus River, which flows from northern Pakistan to Karachi before emptying into the Arabian Sea, is not only a critical source of drinking water but also irrigates large agricultural areas in the Punjab and Sindh provinces, known as Pakistan's breadbasket. Both countries face increasing demands for water due to rapidly growing populations. This pressure is exacerbated by climate change, which has led to the depletion of glaciers, changes in river flow due to more frequent avalanches and landslides, and higher localised temperatures caused by warming seas.

The World Bank-mediated Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) now faces the pressing need to integrate climate factors into its framework, after over six decades of operation. The treaty, which has proven resilient despite numerous disputes and growing hostility between India and Pakistan, ensured uninterrupted water flow and continued power generation, even during three wars between the two nations. The World Bank’s role in mediating this agreement has been tested by time, and despite the tensions, the treaty has stood as an effective mechanism for dispute resolution.

However, hydropower projects like the Salal Dam, Kishanganga, Ratle, and others have now become focal points of contention, pushing the capacity of the Permanent Indus Commission to its limits and attracting external intervention on a case-by-case basis. The treaty grants India certain rights over all six rivers, including limited usage of the three western rivers allocated to Pakistan. While this provision appears to be relatively generous to India as the upper riparian nation, the treaty does not account for water shortages caused by the depletion of sources in the watershed - a growing issue in today’s climate.

As the Himalayan watershed deteriorates due to rising temperatures and reduced glacial melt, updating the water-sharing provisions is increasingly challenging. India seeks to preserve its upstream privileges, while Pakistan depends on the rivers for agriculture and drinking water. The World Bank now faces the difficult task of balancing these competing needs.

The treaty must evolve to address these climate-induced changes. Without provisions to mitigate the effects of rising temperatures, the Indus Water Treaty risks becoming outdated. Adjustments to the treaty are necessary to ensure that both riparian nations can continue to share water resources equitably in the face of the climate crisis. As the Himalayas continue to lose water sources, similar agreements on other transboundary rivers originating from this region will likely need to incorporate climate change considerations, sooner rather than later.

(Adhikary is an engineer and served Nepal government in various high level capacities.)

(The opinion article was originally publihsed in the  October, 2024 issue  of the New Business Age Magazine.)