Nepal's rose market is set to bloom this Valentine's Day, with trade expected to reach Rs 46.7 million in the week leading up to February 14, according to the Floriculture Association of Nepal. The association estimates that around 425,000 stem roses will be commercially traded between February 7 and 14.

Of this, approximately 255,000 stem roses are expected to be sold within the Kathmandu Valley, while the remaining 170,000 will be distributed across other districts. However, domestic production will only fulfill about 25 percent of the demand, said the association’s president, Rajesh Bhakta Shrestha. He noted that the remaining 75 percent of the demand would require imports, primarily from India.

Despite the high demand, official data from the Department of Customs shows minimal rose imports from India. Official records show Nepal has imported roses worth only Rs 20.73 million as of mid-January in the current fiscal year 2024/25. In contrast, flower traders imported roses worth just Rs 106,000 for the entire year in FY 2023/24. This discrepancy has raised concerns about illegal rose imports, Shrestha added.

"We reported the issue to the government last year, leading to stricter border measures. While official import data shows a slight increase this year, significant quantities still enter Nepal through unauthorized channels," he said. "The government has yet to take effective action to curb smuggling."

The association expects the retail price of a single rose stem to range from Rs 90 to 120 this year, depending on quality. Last year, prices varied between Rs 80 and 120 per stem. On regular days, apart from festive occasions, Nepal’s daily rose demand stands at around 8,000 to 10,000 stems. Although the COVID-19 pandemic had significantly impacted flower production, local rose cultivation has recently increased due to growing investments by entrepreneurs.

Flower traders highlight that Nepal relies on imports in February because winter conditions limit domestic rose production. Commercial rose farming is concentrated in Kathmandu Valley, Chitwan, Kavrepalanchok, and Rupandehi, with expansion ongoing in other districts. However, Nepal mainly produces seasonal roses, which struggle to grow in colder months.

Nepal imports flowers and floral products from several countries, including India, the Netherlands, China, Japan, Germany, Kenya, Thailand, Vietnam, the United States, Egypt, Ethiopia, Belgium, Chile, Denmark, the United Kingdom, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Indonesia, and Mexico. Currently, commercial flower cultivation spans about 260 hectares across 52 districts, with an estimated Rs 8.83 billion invested in the sector. The flower business directly and indirectly employs around 51,500 people in Nepal.