Nepal needs to tread with caution in its diplomatic dealings with other countries including its neighbours.

--BY Vishwash Thapa

The speculation about the Chinese President’s visit that was ongoing for the last couple of years materialised on October 12 after Xi Jinping landed in Kathmandu becoming the first executive head of China to visit Nepal in 23 years.

The government and the leaders of the ruling party have termed the visit a historic moment for the country’s diplomacy. Even the opposition parties said Xi’s visit was an important event in Nepal’s diplomatic history. Though relations between the two neighbouring nations dates back centuries, the pace of the diplomatic tie accelerated after KP Sharma Oli-led government in 2016 signed an agreement on transit transport during his visit to China.

In his articles published in the broadsheet dailies a day before his two-day visit, Xi said he believes the friendly relations between the two countries, connected with the Himalayas, can be taken to a new height. As China is expanding its role, Xi’s Nepal visit has huge diplomatic and strategic meaning with long term implications.

Diplomatic experts also believe Xi’s visit is a clear portrayal that China has given due importance to strengthen its relations with Nepal. According to them, through the visit the Chinese side has delivered a message that Nepal is a priority country. Those closely following China say that the northern neighbour was looking for a stable and favourable government for a high-level visit to Nepal.

The country now has a government with two-thirds majority led by Oli who ever since his first stint as the Prime Minister has a proactive role in taking Nepal-China relations to a new height. This, perhaps, developed a sense of confidence within the Chinese side.  

Around two dozen agreements were signed between the two countries during Xi’s visit, which ranged from infrastructure, agriculture to education.  His announcement to provide Rs 56 billion in a grant too was a surprise for the Nepali side which hadn’t anticipated such a declaration.

Xi’s commitment to support Nepal’ desire to become a land-linked nation carries huge meaning as Nepal, which is dependent with India in trade and transit, is keenly looking for an alternative. Though China has agreed for a detailed feasibility study of the much talked about Kerung-Kathmandu railway line, it has signed an agreement to construct a tunnel road connecting Kathmandu with Kerung. Owing to the problematic terrain the dream of seeing a Chinese train in Nepal will seemingly take time, therefore, the priority of the northern neighbour is on the road connectivity keeping the goal of the train on the back burner.

The joint statement states that the two countries will agree to take forward the Belt and Road Initiative as an important opportunity to deepen mutually-beneficial cooperation in all fields in a comprehensive manner, jointly pursue common prosperity and dedicate themselves to maintaining peace, stability and development in the region.

The priority of the agreement was connectivity by building infrastructure like ports, roads, railways, aviation and communications within what the joint statement calls “the overarching framework of trans-Himalayan Multi-Dimensional Connectivity Network”.

Another significant development, though some observers are sceptical, is the strategic partnership between the two nations announced through the joint communiqué. Amid doubt over what actually the strategic partnership means, Oli has tried to clear the air that there is no military motive behind it.

Diplomatic analysts say that along with the support in infrastructure, the government of Nepal will also be looking for some commitments on foreign direct investment.  Nepal received FDI commitments of Rs 12.12 billion from Chinese investors in the last fiscal year.  Nepal aims for a double-digit growth rate in the coming years, which requires neighbouring domestic and foreign investment.  

A new understanding was also reached between Nepal and China to take Mt Everest, which is called ‘Zhumulangma’ in Mandarin, as an “eternal symbol of the friendship between Nepal and China.” The two sides have agreed to work together to address climate change and protect the environment while also jointly announcing the height of the world’s highest peak. There has been conflicting claims about the height of Mt Everest. The announcement of the height together has a symbolic meaning as China would agree on the height determined by Nepal.

Of late, particularly after Wuhan, China has been floating an idea of Indian-China plus one. Meaning Nepal would be a partner with China and India. While Oli, in the interview has lauded the gestures by Xi, he says Nepal would want an equal partnership, therefore, is for three, not the two plus one model.

In the view of observers, while Xi’s visit has taken Nepal-China relations to a new height and is a huge diplomatic success for the incumbent Oli government, it is also a challenge to ensure Nepal doesn’t seem to be entirely close with China. Nepal is in a geo-politically sensitive area, and it cannot afford to antagonise India and the United States.

They say Nepal must be careful in diplomatic dealings as the US has faced diplomatic setbacks in Nepal including a delay in the endorsement of the Millennium Challenge Corporation from the federal parliament. They also have cautioned that diplomacy must not be a tool for petty party politics. Their warning has proved right as the US in clear words has expressed its worries about strengthening of Sino-Nepal ties.

In her statement before the US House Foreign Affairs Sub-Committee on Asia and the Pacific, Alice W Wells, acting assistant secretary at Bureau of South and Central Asia, said: “As Chinese influence has grown in Nepal, so has the government of Nepal’s restrictions on the Tibetan community.”

The elated Oli government now has the challenge to convince the west that they too are important partners of Nepal. Oli has said that he will take all partner countries together and won’t play the cards against each other. Now the time has come for him to demonstrate his claims.

His success will be gauged by how well he manages to take other countries together to the benefit of the nation.