--By Prof Ujjwal K Chowdhury

Within next 12 to 15 months, South Asia is surely up for a different scenario, hopefully qualitatively different too from what it is now.

Impending Elections 

General Elections are due in Pakistan in May 2013, being discussed for June 2013 in Nepal, are expected in late this year in Bangladesh and Maldives, and are scheduled for early 2014 in India (which can be preponed) and are in 2015 in Sri Lanka (which also can be preponed in the light of intense internal conflicts between Buddhist Sinhalese majority and Tamil Hindu and Muslim Sinhalese minorities). 

Hence, within next 12 to 15 months, South Asia is surely up for a different scenario, hopefully qualitatively different too from what it is now. 

Scenario Today

 The largest nation of the region, India, is virtually plagued with policy paralysis for quite some time now, the ruling dispensation facing serious corruption charges and being at the mercy of belligerent allies. With rise of Modi within BJP polarizing the electorate, and larger states of India being ruled by regional forces, the political scenario is ambiguous just now. The ensuing elections to state assemblies in Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi and Rajasthan will throw some light on the political finals of General Elections. 

Pakistan, for quite some time, has been an ungoverned and ungovernable state with terrorist and radical Islamic forces controlling certain parts of the country, youth force behind an aggressive political posturing by Imran Khan and his Tehreeq-E-Insaaf Party, anti-corruption movement led by the Pakistani crusader Muhammad Tahir ul Qadri being on, Nawaz Sharief’s Muslim League threatened as former military strongman Pervez Musharraf returns to activate his similarly positioned All Pakistan Muslim League, and ruling PPP plagued with corruption and incompetence, with army no signs of relenting ‘real power’ to the democratically elected forces. 

Sri Lanka is moving from one round of ethnic cleansing of Tamil Hindus to another round, and this time of Sinhalese Muslims. Majority Buddhist Sinhalese nationalism is on the rise and doubts are being expressed about the survival of multi-party and multi-ethnic secular democracy in that country. 

Bangladesh is in the throes of a bitter conflict between radical Islamists and Islamic political forces, represented by BNP-Jamaat alliance on one side and the liberal Awami League and left wing forces on the other, with the ruling Awami League floundering at every step. The conflict has permeated into culture, media, places of worship, street fights, rallies, violence, et al, and recent violence before and after Shahbaug protests by the secularists has taken more than 80 lives so far.

Nepal is in its stage of political indecisiveness just now, having put in place an electoral government led by the sitting Chief Justice and some bureaucrats as ministers, but no election date and proper Election Commission still in place. 

Maldives is divided bitterly, akin to Bangladesh, between the ruling Islamic political forces led by current President Mohamed Waheed Hussain Manik and the opposing liberal secular forces of former President Mohamed Nausheed, with India intervening on behalf of Nausheed recently. The difference is, unlike Bangladesh, the Islamic political forces are ruling Maldives ousting the democratically elected Nausheed’s government in a bloodless coup. 

In effect, South Asia today is completely in a state of flux and uncertainty and the next 15 months are expected to ascertain the contours of the region for the next half a decade or more. 

India@2014 

For the first time in a decade, India’s GDP growth has come below 5% in a year from as high as 9% a few years back. Price-rise, corruption, civil society activism, regional forces, discontent with the Centre: all have been on the rise unabated across the last three years, and larger part of the thinking-talking-arguing middle class is sure that Congress led UPA is sure to be defeated in the next election, and may even prepone the polls to avoid complete washout. 

BJP has turned backwards, bringing to the fore all Hindutva radical faces like Uma Bharati, Vinay Katiyar, Varun Gandhi, Amit Shah, Kalyan Singh and expecting to blend this majority-ism with the good governance record and personal charisma of Narendra Modi along with pro-farmer approach of Sushma Swaraj and Rajnath Singh on Land Acquisition Bill, and create an infallible force to win 200 seats in some 545 member Lok Sabha, and then manage to come to power with old (Shiv Sena, Akali Dal, etc) and new (AIADMK, TDP, etc) allies.

Pakistan@2014 

If you talk to youths on the streets of Karachi or Islamabad, Imran Khan is all set to make a thundering entry into power as the next PM of Pakistan. If you talk to the people in 40s and 50s, they are confused. Surely they expect PPP to be defeated after a spate of poor governance, but Musharraf and Nawaz Sharief battling for the rightist votes will only brighten prospects of PPP unless Imran Khan really makes the tide of the youths into that of the nation.

Maldives and Bangladesh@2014 

Free and fair elections in these countries and tacit role of India may ensure liberal forces of Nausheed in Maldives and Sheikh Haseena in Bangladesh to once again win. However, mobilization of the rural masses and Arabs funded radical Islamic forces may turn the apple-curt and retain power in Male and capture it in Dhaka. 

Sri Lanka@2015 

Given the fact that the army stands solidly behind President Rajapakshye and the international community has limited role in the internal affairs of the island nation, while India’s role is curbed due to growing SL-China relations, the current rulers are expected to bulldoze all opposition and retain power in Colombo whenever the elections are conducted there.

Nepal@2014: 

The biggest question first is whether the elections will be held, if not in June, at least within November next, and if a popularly elected Constituent Assembly and thereby the government will come to power. Second, if elections are being held, whenever, whether they will be free and fair. Then, after elections, if at all any political force or coalition gets clear majority. Given the situation on ground today, ruling Maoists along with their Madhesi allies may be the largest political bloc, short of majority, while the rest of the opposition, together though a majority, may never come as a single bloc.

Alternative Scenario in South Asia by 2014 

Politics is the art of the impossible and science of changing human behaviour. So, there could be another scenario, come 2014. 

Narendra Modi led BJP may enthuse the party and voters in a large number of states partly on development agenda and partly on nationalistic slogans and come to power in India with a clear majority (also with minor support from known allies). Nausheed captures power in Maldives and Haseena retains the same in Bangladesh with clear majority again. A Sinhalese opposition leader (e.g. former army chief Sharath Fonseka) with support of India, Tamils, Muslims and a part of Sinhalese people, captures power in a preponed elections in SL in 2014. Maoists-Madheshis get clear majority in CA and government in Nepal. Imran Khan does the apparently impossible feat of coming to power in Pakistan riding a wave of youth support. 

If this scenario happens and with comfortable majorities in each of these South Asian nations, which is also a probable scenario which, therefore, ensures 5 years of undeterred decision governance, the region may see the realization of its economic potentials. 

Economic Potentials 

India has huge trading potentials in the region, hampered by regional skirmishes and conflicts, which can reduce if the alternative scenario above happens. Look East Policy will help India develop international trade and commerce with Bangladesh, Burma and Nepal to the benefit of all. Destructive competition on jute and agro-based products between India and Bangladesh can be reduced. 

Tourism in Maldives and Nepal can get a major fillip with peace and liberal regimes coming in these nations. In fact, Indian tourism has much more potentials with liberal visa regimes with Pakistan and Bangladesh as well. 

Textiles, automobiles, food-grains et al can be traded cheaper, better, faster within the region with political stability returning. Foreign Direct Investments within the region can sharply increase as well with right welcoming policies in place in these countries. 

Movement of students, cheaper educational options in the region, and regional cooperation on skills development will be another major area of development. 

Energy Security in South Asia is bound to increase with Nepal’s huge hydro-power potentials being realized more and India’s immense solar power possibilities explore further (which anyway is a pet project of Narendra Modi). 

Indo-Pak economic relations are with immense benefits to both the nations. India gets oil from Iran with stress and high costs due to non-cooperation from Pakistan and Pakistan imports several items of daily use and infra-structural growth from the West at a much higher costs than what it can get from India. 

The entire region needs a tremendous infra-structural push, banking and investments development, rise of social entrepreneurship, and value addition to their agricultural produce. In each of these areas, the South Asian nations have a lot to share if they learn to look at each other positively. 

Conclusion 

Change is the spice of life. Irrespective of whether the status quo looks insurmountable, we must look at possibilities positively. South Asia has one-fifths of the world’s population, rich heritage and is the birth-place of Buddhism, Sikhism, Jainism, Hinduism and various forms of animism. South Asia has world’s largest water-resource, highest peaks, longest coastal range, huge solar power reserves. South Asia’s demographic is the youngest in the world, a large number of them being English educated, IT savvy, secular, and democratic in attitude. 

Mutually cooperative South Asia has a much larger dividend than the current region marred with conflicts and tensions. 

The author is former Dean of Symbiosis International University and President of the advisory board at Whistling Woods School of Communication, Mumbai.