Dry Spell in Nepal’s Southern Plains Poses Threat to Food Security and Economy

Madhesh Province, traditionally known as Nepal’s rice bowl, is facing one of the worst droughts in recent history, raising alarms over national food security and broader economic implications. With rice planting in the region severely delayed due to poor monsoon rains, experts warn of a significant drop in crop yields and a potential increase in food imports and inflation.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development, only 51% of paddy fields in Madhesh had been planted as of July 27. This marks a stark decline from the 92% coverage recorded in the corresponding period of last year. In response, both the provincial and federal governments declared all eight districts of Madhesh as drought-affected and disaster-prone areas, respectively.

Madhesh accounts for approximately 25% of Nepal’s total rice output. In the last fiscal year 2024/25, the region produced 1.48 million metric tons of rice out of the country’s total 5.96 million metric tons, which is more than any other province. With rice contributing about 12% to Nepal’s agricultural GDP and agriculture itself making up 24.1% of total GDP, the stakes are high.

Read: Crisis in Nepal’s Grain Basket: Drought Hits Paddy Planting in Madhesh

Prakash Kumar Sanjel, joint secretary at the Agriculture Ministry, cautioned that if planting does not significantly improve by early August, the resulting shortfall could ripple through the economy, affecting everything from rice prices to overall GDP growth. Although the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has forecast some rainfall in the coming week, it remains uncertain whether it will be sufficient to salvage the season.

Dr. Mathura Yadav, coordinator of the National Rice Research Program under the Nepal Agricultural Research Council (NARC), estimates that rice production in Madhesh could decline by as much as 25% this year. The delayed planting, combined with dry conditions, threatens seed viability and lowers yield potential. If output falls, rice imports could surge by a similar margin.

The situation is further compounded by similar drought conditions in India’s Bihar state, which borders Madhesh. Should India restrict rice exports as it had in the past, Nepal could face supply shortages and price hikes. In the last fiscal year alone, Nepal imported rice/paddy worth approximately Rs 40 billion, according to the Department of Customs.

Experts attribute the crisis not only to climate change but also to human-induced factors. Hydrologist Govinda Sharma points to environmental degradation in Nepal’s Terai region, such as deforestation in the Chure hills and excessive riverbed mining, which have reduced groundwater recharge. Additionally, extensive groundwater extraction on the Indian side of the border, subsidized by the Indian government for irrigation, has significantly lowered the water table in adjacent Nepali districts.

Read: Madhes Province Declared Drought-Hit Zone

Despite its key role in national food production, Madhesh continues to face challenges in irrigation infrastructure. The Nepal Rastra Bank’s latest semi-annual report on Madhesh Province notes that the total irrigated area rose by 2.41% to 333,551 hectares, but the majority of farmers still rely heavily on rainfall. Of this irrigated land, 113,683 hectares are served by tube wells, 166,736 hectares by canals, and 45,700 hectares by boring systems. Senior agricultural economist Tilak Chaulagain noted that most farmers in Madhesh rely on rainwater for paddy cultivation, and only about 25% of Nepal’s arable land has access to year-round irrigation.

The report also reveals a 2.93% year-on-year decline in land area devoted to major food crops, vegetables, fruits, and spices in the province, down to 952,519 hectares. Reduced rainfall this year has likely contributed to the contraction, further underscoring the region’s vulnerability.