RSP Tsunami Reshapes Nepal’s Political Landscape

The Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) has secured 113 first-past-the-post (FPTP) seats so far in the House of Representatives election and is leading in 13 other constituencies, according to the Election Commission.

The party is also dominating the proportional representation (PR) vote count. Of the 3.59 million PR votes counted so far, the RSP has secured around 1.78 million—nearly half of the total.

Nepal’s oldest political party, the Nepali Congress, trails far behind. It has won 16 FPTP seats and is leading in one constituency. Its PR vote tally has crossed 600,000.

Among the 144 FPTP winners declared so far, the CPN (UML) has secured seven seats and is leading in three constituencies. The party has received more than 500,000 PR votes.

The Nepali Communist Party has won five seats and is leading in two constituencies, while its PR vote tally stands at around 243,000.

The Harka Raj Rai-led Shram Sanskriti Party has won two seats and is leading in Bhojpur. With nearly 77,000 PR votes so far, the party also stands a chance of becoming a national party.

Meanwhile, Gyan Bahadur Shahi’s victory in Jumla has put the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) on track to qualify as a national party. The party has secured nearly 130,000 PR votes.

Under Nepal’s election system, a party must win at least one FPTP seat and secure a minimum of 3 percent of the valid PR votes to be recognised as a national party.

Nepal voted last Thursday to elect the 275-member House of Representatives, the lower house of the Federal Parliament. Of the total seats, 165 are elected through the FPTP system, while 110 are allocated through proportional representation.

A party needs at least 138 seats to secure a majority and form the government. If the current trend continues, the RSP could secure around 184 seats — a two-thirds majority and the power to amend the constitution.

Nepal has witnessed such parliamentary dominance only once before. In the country’s first general election in 1959, the Nepali Congress won 74 of 109 seats, securing a two-thirds majority and making BP Koirala prime minister.

However, the government was short-lived. In December 1960, King Mahendra staged a coup, dismissing the elected government, dissolving parliament, suspending the constitution and banning political parties. Political leaders were jailed, and Nepal entered a 30-year partyless Panchayat system.