Nepal is expected to become an ageing society within the next three decades, prompting the National Statistical Office (NSO) to call for immediate strategic planning to address the economic, health, and social challenges associated with demographic transition.

A report released by the NSO, based on the 2021 National Census (2078 BS), projects that Nepal will officially transition into an ageing society by 2054, when the proportion of the population aged 65 or above reaches 14 percent. The NSO has stressed the need for timely policy intervention to mitigate the potential negative impacts of this shift.

"The declining fertility rate and increasing life expectancy are key factors contributing to the rising elderly population," the report states. "This change will bring economic, healthcare, and social inclusion challenges that must be addressed proactively."

Currently, 10.2 percent of Nepal’s population is aged 60 or above, up from 5.8 percent in 1991. The share of those aged 75 or older stands at 6.9 percent, indicating the country is on the verge of becoming an ageing society, which is defined by the United Nations as having at least 7 percent of the population aged 65 or older.

The report emphasizes that the growing elderly population will place a heavier burden on the state, especially in terms of social security and pension expenditures. Economist Govinda Nepal warned that as the proportion of dependent elderly increases, the government will need to allocate more unproductive spending, while productivity declines.

“In a country like ours, where most elderly lack financial resources and access to quality healthcare, they often depend on their families, who may also be financially strained,” said Nepal. “The state's responsibility increases in parallel, creating long-term fiscal pressure.”

Highlighting rural and disadvantaged communities in particular, the report notes that around 51 percent of the elderly population is still economically active, with most engaged in agriculture due to the lack of retirement benefits and social security systems.

Sociologist Jagat Bahadur Gurung remarked that many elderly individuals, especially those outside the formal employment sector, are compelled to remain in the workforce to sustain themselves.

“This group is largely excluded from traditional employment or leadership roles. They often resort to self-employment due to the absence of post-retirement service facilities,” Gurung said. “To keep them economically engaged, the government should consider increasing the retirement age to 63.”

He further suggested that skilled retired professionals, such as university professors, should be reintegrated into the workforce. “Extending the working years for trained individuals would ease the burden on the pension system and maximize state investments made in human capital,” he added.

Despite the rising elderly population, Nepal still has a large working-age demographic. As of 2021, individuals aged 15 to 59 comprised 62 percent of the total population. This demographic window provides a potential for economic growth, often referred to as the "demographic dividend."

However, the report warns that Nepal’s opportunity to capitalize on this dividend is quickly narrowing. The country can benefit from this demographic advantage only until 2042. Economist Nepal criticized the government for failing to harness this potential.

“Instead of creating jobs within the country, the government relies hevily on remittances by encouraging labor migration,” he said. “Other countries have benefited from our youth, while we remained complacent. Remittances alone are not a sustainable economic strategy.”

The NSO report calls for the development of infrastructure, services, and policies that support elderly care, social inclusion, mental health, and financial stability. It also underscores the importance of recognizing the elderly as a productive segment of society.